Looking backwards… in time, or in any other way (with or without the fine tooth comb) often reveals much more about where you’ve once been… and likely where you’re going, especially in light of today’s preconceived economic misdirection called Mr. Free Market‘s centrally planned reality. Looking backwards then, gives one statistical justice to enable the anticipated “staged” context of the present day “timed-released economic induced data”.
Therefore, rear view analysis should contribute heavily in assembling future counter-factual, macro-trend data for ones actionable investment thesis. This backwardation is especially interesting in light of a more in-depth study of NBER’s recession-ending report, which first met the eye way back upon its initial release some twenty months ago and still counting.
Much can be learned from looking between the old lines once again, for instance, of exactly how the stage was to be set for what later actually “happened” or better yet, “unfolded” in a “reveal” over the next two years from that specific point in time. What has happened. Well, no return to anything resembling normal after the end to any other recession, including capacity utilization rates, insider buying, nor real material psychological improvements (Small Business Confidence Index), nor true, permanent full-time job growth (without drop offs), or retail sales either, but alternatively, no further economic declines either.
This sets up the unsustainable context at present as we strive to avoid at all costs “the next double-dip recession” as we are sure to be astounded to learn that we never left the old recession in all likelihood – and it all was simply a plan created “out of thin air” inside an unaudited accounting statement for a holding company covering up a continuing, seemingly 4ever & never-ending, de-leveraging decades-long human, no not corporate, depression. But, let’s get right back to the “…length and strength of the recovery to date…” so pay attention to the terrifically worded gobbly-gook in the statement below – months before the announcement of QE 2, or debt limit increases in QE 3.
Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 – The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest post war recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted just 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.