Snow Jobs

Dear Contra_Folk,
Fairy tales and Gmen’s propaganda snow job machines are one and the same in the land of make us believe.  Especially now, as all of us can plainly see, in broad daylight, today’s respective faux non-employment survey(s).   And the revisions, barn and both door-sized annual revisions, along with further adjustments to employment availability pool(s) of this “suddenly” manipulated (don’t you know) birth/death model and the biased surveyed-surveys, and how now even the three (3) month trend is suspected to be a statistically meaningless report on a go forward basis.

That is all fun and games, until that one fine day when MuBernanke awakens from his slumber and determines that “market printing rates” have to rise to quell the vigilante riots, and so decides to release a chin high 750,000 job curve-ball just for fun, and well…, because he can, for it is after all…, just another manipulated number.  We all know he has been waiting to deliver his most famous pitch yet (Hint: March’s employment numbers released in early April/11 is a good batter’s guess for that face slapping moment and a short seller’s accumulation tipping point).

Remember the 2011 investment motto: Confuse and Abuse

Jobs, in January, would have been 200,000 higher ya know without these snow storms – we are so assuredly told by all media-linked “expert networked” outlets.  Seemingly, a story line just unfolding as if one was reading a manuscript, playing out right in front of us all – and that is, quite likely, not another fairy tale.

Imagine someone in say, the executive olive branch, probably a moody consultant on contract orchestrating a back room of twenty-somethings trading and executing on a perfectly contrived to be painful, and also yield a “disappointingly slow jobs growth” scenario for all to watch (with a nice sparkling counter-factual blips to trade short)  over a decade, or perhaps even much longer.

Hard to imagine with all this is just a result of ZIRP’s 0% Bankster-bought, stock (re)purchased and debt refinanced euphoria, with Greenspam’s over excess of capital liquidity, with QE 1-3 in riskless stimulus, with a new $15.1 Trillion in limitless middle class tax/debt facilities, with a host of business-friendly, decade long, tax-cut stimulus certainty now already under the bridge, why are we anywhere near being under 100,000 in full-time jobs in the here and now?

After all, it’s 2011 and we need 140,000 just to hold the unemployment rate steady with population gains – they all said that, you remember that line?  Another very good question to ask, especially for today, is why exactly did the unemployment rate suddenly fall much, much more than expected, rounded all the way down to a fictitious 9.0%, for 8.9% would have been just too good, and well, frankly embarrassing.  We know its just statistics.

We (corporations) Need More, Mr. Senator

Back to Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Those big important Acts of job destruction were all made by design, some say.  Conspirators spouting off, even today, saying the many thousands of pages of self-induced congressional employment stagnation policies of MuBarack’s health care legislation that was passed in the midnight is ever more factual evidence; along with a list of the many foreclosure rules of law being overturned of late.  Believe you me, the Federal Supreme High Court of Appeals has many more important issues on its busy, very busy docket to decide upon other than your Constitutional challenges to the premium paying and cost increasing health care directive affecting every single one of its’ citizens – and all starting to take effect in less than eight months.

The Supremes are Not Hearing: “We No See, We No Speak, We No Hear, We No Legal”

The decision to hang this HC agenda over the head of business by threatening a 1/3 cost increase on payroll costs due to a these NEW health care policies for instance, was meant to prevent employers from, hiring.  Keeping inflation and the velocity of money low and slow and thereby also keeping the 0.25% in play for the Banksters funding of further snakes and ladders games.

Just like adding a new consumption sales tax during a recession to a host of new products and services, like Ontario & BC did up in Canada when deflation was sagging in – they jacked up the prices of most “previously exempt” items 7%.   Now a year and two trillion later, its nice to have a faux taxation revised higher inflation base of comparables from last year to compare CPI/PCE to this year y-o-y and hide the runaway materials inflation that is factually present.  Without that move last year to show that things are still cool on a year-over-next year cost comparison basis.  This all very likely designed to mask the bubble truth up in the True North, especially if core inflation goes parabolically “double figure” nuts.   Sure 9.0% unemployment rate sounds good to the lemmings, but most of us know it snows almost every winter.   Remember the survey or  BLS report is made up with phone-survey questions present to the chosen few (union homes) who are repeatedly contacted each survey week and asked did they work any part of one day in the last ten, and secondly, How many finger do you see?

Your Next Job is Unfortunately Weather Dependant.

In Canada, snowflakes makes thousands of jobs suddenly appear.  A +800,000 US job equivalent number. Next month in the US, in February, they all keep saying – just wait for next month in the US, we seem to hear it endlessly now for two years, then it disappoints keeping rates at 0.25% – as promised because of no jobs.  Blame statistical noise….whatever you will.  Funny, someone however very accurately however counted exactly 886,000 people who could not get into work during the snow storm as an excuse why the numbers weren’t better.  Exactly 886,000.   Humm… statistical food for thought.

If, say,  the next two job lies reports show two months of consecutive large scale employment gains, then employment might just threaten the Bankster’s plan of a semi-permanent 0.25% cost of borrowing, and halt the short term earnings that are driving flame-throwing stock repurchases and gunning faux earnings to the metal.   Just wait for QE 0 through 2 to take effect is a good joke – and someday, we could have a job surge.  All lies, made believable only through the endless increase to the US taxpayer National Debt Level supplying WallStreet’s Department of Truthiness – which as we know, has no ceiling until MuBernanke loses his rights to access the office printer cartridges.

Today’s premeditated snow job lowering (US +40K) and raising (Cdn.+70k) for January, includes for all to see, 600,000 individuals who were not counted as they simply dropped off into that thin air thang, and were not counted.  Embarrassing really, for the complete and utter manipulative aspect of all free market capitalism statistics during this period of economic expansion is unprecedented.

An economic expansion plan designed by the Oligarchy would look like this.  Give me endless taxpayer money at near zero cost and let me buy a bunch of equipment, machines, and even weapons to sell to my corporate buddies (for they are the only ones with cash these days) and let me expense the entire 25 year amortization of that machine’s useful life, all in the current year and setting up for record earnings from then onward.  100% tax deduction for the current taxable EPS year helps hide and lower corporate tax rates as well setting up for higher tax rates going forward and thus the Gmen’s discussions over really, really high corporate tax rates.

Nothing for hiring someone though.  Add a billion dollar stock repurchase plan available all next year to put a floor in my Dow confidence boosting stock all for the low, low, cost of (ZIRP) 0.25% on rolling corporate short term (and now medium term) borrowing structure.

Sorry to ask, but we have to, what has all the taxpayer spending and political mind and legal bending accomplished for its Citizens?  What exactly have we politically accomplished through this process other than stock ramps for the 10% wealthy with material investable net worth?  What about making those millions of “human” jobs a priority.   Another W.H. request for Fortune 500 hiring falls again on deaf ears.


The jobless recovery is a direct result from an absence of “human” creative and intellectual skills and value added, problem solving types of new employment positions that should – and need to be created with free capital formation.  At some point, one has to ask, why don’t we have 400,000 jobs instead of 40,000?  Well, after pledging more than $21 Trillion, having corporate leverage levels at all time highs, why have we have now just ended up buying more machines, in advance of some future event,  or have we just laid out the corporate paving stones leading us all the way to Stagflationland.

Food Stamp Use Surges

The Choice: 100% immediate long-term Dow Jones Industrial machine & equipment write-offs vs. 25% Labor Cost Input Tax Credits (ie: lowering the 16% U-6 unemployment rate by inducing new hiring programs with a 1/4 tax break for hiring someone, preferably another human, to do a skilled job that makes an acceptable rate of societal return).

The Reveal
:  We know it wasn’t a job hiring explosion.  A long awaited labour tax credit luring and inducing employers with a 25% instant input tax credit for the sake of a “job stimulus” package, but rather they proceeded with a job-halting Mubamacare legislative distraction increasing by 1/3 the cost of labour now all makes perfect sense.  All designs point to a premedicated job of stifling administrative policies allowing every Bankster’s fairy tale to come true with zero private employment as per plan.  Nice corporate representation in a free market democracy.

So a great big snow job in all its glorious facets, but what is truly interesting is why the Dept of Truthiness is educating the lemmings today on the details of the vulgarities of the various Gmen statistical surveys used to manipulate the official department numbers, is this time being used to depict an expansionary fairy tale?  Insightful minds could think that this means the Peak Phase is already here, and the next contraction phase maybe a mere year or less away – or are we simply being taught faux “cause and effects” by PD thugs using 0.25% funds as a market-pumping, primary dealer’s rubicon project of fairy tales and other snow jobs?

Shovelling Out from Under,
Contra_Man

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Fictional (maybe not if you are an accredited investor) trading of a long/short contrarian-driven investment model portfolio based upon current economic environments and counter-intuitive trends. Legal Disclaimer The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES. The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please consult your own investment advisor before making any investments anywhere, and always do your own due diligence before undertaking any individual investment.
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